Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media: A Look Back at COP-15:
http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2009/12/a-look-back-at-cop-15/
A very in-depth analysis of the Copenhagen Accord by renowned Harvard economist Robert Stavins:
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/analysis/stavins/?p=464
"It is unquestionably the case that the Accord represents the best agreement that could be achieved in Copenhagen, given the political forces at play."
Lots of goodies in the above article, plenty of links to previous/supplementary work done by the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements.
A joint New York Times op-ed by Michael Levi, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Frank Loy, former lead climate negotiator for the U.S.: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/24/opinion/24iht-edloy.html?_r=3&ref=global
What's interesting is that there seem to be plenty of people arguing in the aftermath of Copenhagen that the UNFCCC is a framework ill-suited to tackling climate change, perhaps completely unworkable given that all 193 nations effectively have veto power over any agreement.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Monday, December 21, 2009
Two Views from Yale e360
Bill McKibben:http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2225
"It’s possible that human beings will simply never be able to figure out how to bring global warming under control — that having been warned about the greatest danger we ever faced, we simply won’t take significant action to prevent it."
and Fred Pearce:http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2226
"Having followed climate talks since the Earth Summit in 1992, I am in many ways amazed at the progress made."
Saturday, December 19, 2009
a little optimism after big disappointments
Hi everyone...
Here is an article that points out some of the positive things that came out of Copenhagen, even though the overall conclusion was pretty discouraging.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Here's the Deal
Well, it's not what we had hoped for, but hey you gotta start somewhere!
Thursday, December 17, 2009
speeches by world leaders
Heads of state are gathered here in Copenhagen today, addressing the delegates about their respective country positions going forward from the conference and the need to create strong legislation.
Many of the same themes keep reappearing in these speeches -- a commitment to "common but differentiated responsibilities" in fighting climate change, national plans for renewable energy infrastructure, the need for money to assist developing countries grow sustainably, the millions of refugees that the world will face if sea levels rise, and more.
It is certainly exciting for me to sit here and listen to every leader speak about the urgency of the need to act on climate change. It is truly extraordinary, actually -- finally, world leaders are taking this issue seriously and are committing to legitimate action! And, it is great to hear about projects that each country has in store for the near future.
However, some leaders have taken advantage of this prominent stage to blast the United States and the capitalist system, namely Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Evo Morales of Bolivia.
I have mixed feelings about these speeches. On the one hand, this is truly an exciting moment in history. For the first time, every country is stepping forward and expressing their concerns about this most important issue. Maybe this will help propel the process forward?
On the other hand, it seems like it is also wasting precious time. The treaties are nowhere near completion, and there are just 24 hours left in the conference. But, the rest of the day will be taken up by these speeches.
Regardless, these speeches are great to watch. Check them out here: http://www1.cop15.meta-fusion.com/kongresse/cop15/templ/live.php?id_kongressmain=1&theme=unfccc&id_kongresssession=1
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Tuesday: REDD & the Private Sector and Carbon Markets
On Tuesday, I attended two very interesting side-events.
The first was a panel hosted by the Asia-Europe Foundation entitled "REDD & the Private Sector." The first speaker was Mr. Andrej Kranjc, Head of the Climate Security Service and the Minister of the Environment and Spatial Planning for the country of Slovenia. He noted that Europe's role was to faciliate the prevention of deforestation in Asia (as well as Latin America and Asia) by buying REDD credits and thus funding the projects, but he expressed worry that a huge influx of a brand new type of carbon credit could flood the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS, the EU's cap-&-trade system) and result in a market crash. He also advocated for what's known as a "nested" approach, or a hybrid of public and private funding for REDD projects.
Later, Dr. Renate Christ, the Secretary of the IPCC, gave a background on the Fourth Assessment's (AR4) take on forests and deforestation. She cited data from the IPCC AR4 stating that from 2000-2005, the average annual rate of global deforestation was 1.9 million hectares per year, and that the deforestation was being driven primarily by agriculture. She provided some new information about the Fifth Assessment Report, due out in 2014. In order to reflect the interconnectedness of agriculture and forestry, the IPCC AR5 will combine Agriculture and Forestry into one chapter.
Dr. Christ also noted that the economic and social benefits of forests, and also their environmental benefits, extended beyond just their function as carbon sinks. She stated that over 1.6 billion people depend on forests for their livelihoods, and that forests provide various ecosystem services, such as soil stabilization, protection of biodiversity, and flood control (this last is instrumental to adaptation efforts to counter sea-level rise).
However, Dr. Christ that saving the world's forests could be beyond us if we don't act quickly. Climate change and increased temperatures create positively amplifying feedbacks that accelerate carbon release from forests, as higher temperatures inhibit the forests' ability to store carbon and increased lightning strikes and pest invasions lead to higher rates of forest fires.
Last on the panel was Jozsef Feller, a senior environmental official from Hungary. He argued that the scope of the challenge of combating deforestation, as well as the miniscule window of opportunity we have, means that public money will simply not be enough to get the job done. He said that public money had a supplementary/facilitating role to provide for oversight, technical assistance, and other governance and enforcment issues.
However, he also cautioned about being completely gung-ho about REDD credits. He advocated for phasing REDD credits into the carbon markets so as to not shock the system. And, perhaps most significantly, he quoted the classic Qui custodiet ipsos custodes? (he didn't quote it precisely, but close enough). This was lead-in to expressing the belief that international oversight, as well as sanctions and enforcement, would be necessary for REDD to operate properly. This would require, to some extent, a relinquishing of national sovereignty in a way that certain developing countries (though none were specifically mentioned, China leaps instantly to mind) have been thus far reluctant to agree to.
The second panel I attended was hosted by the Carbon Market Investors Association. The interesting discussiont that took place revolved around the possibility of a U.S. cap-&-trade market (if the main climate legislation proposals actually pass next year) being linked with the EU's ETS. The panelists noted some obstacles, including the fact that the differences in market regulations would have to be resolved. For example, the ETS currently has no price caps or floors for carbon credits, whereas the Senate bill could potentially include both.
Another problem noted was the disparity between the prices in the markets. The EU ETS price on carbon credits currently hovers around 40 euro/ton, whereas U.S. interests have gotten skittish when any price above $20 U.S. dollars (roughly 13 euros at current exchange rates) is mentioned. Thus, for political as well as economic reasons (any linkage would inevitably result in huge transfer of wealth from the E.U. companies to the U.S.), any linkage could be very difficult. Thus, the panelists were skeptical that it could happen any time soon, and most of their projections estimated at least 2020 or later.
The first was a panel hosted by the Asia-Europe Foundation entitled "REDD & the Private Sector." The first speaker was Mr. Andrej Kranjc, Head of the Climate Security Service and the Minister of the Environment and Spatial Planning for the country of Slovenia. He noted that Europe's role was to faciliate the prevention of deforestation in Asia (as well as Latin America and Asia) by buying REDD credits and thus funding the projects, but he expressed worry that a huge influx of a brand new type of carbon credit could flood the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS, the EU's cap-&-trade system) and result in a market crash. He also advocated for what's known as a "nested" approach, or a hybrid of public and private funding for REDD projects.
Later, Dr. Renate Christ, the Secretary of the IPCC, gave a background on the Fourth Assessment's (AR4) take on forests and deforestation. She cited data from the IPCC AR4 stating that from 2000-2005, the average annual rate of global deforestation was 1.9 million hectares per year, and that the deforestation was being driven primarily by agriculture. She provided some new information about the Fifth Assessment Report, due out in 2014. In order to reflect the interconnectedness of agriculture and forestry, the IPCC AR5 will combine Agriculture and Forestry into one chapter.
Dr. Christ also noted that the economic and social benefits of forests, and also their environmental benefits, extended beyond just their function as carbon sinks. She stated that over 1.6 billion people depend on forests for their livelihoods, and that forests provide various ecosystem services, such as soil stabilization, protection of biodiversity, and flood control (this last is instrumental to adaptation efforts to counter sea-level rise).
However, Dr. Christ that saving the world's forests could be beyond us if we don't act quickly. Climate change and increased temperatures create positively amplifying feedbacks that accelerate carbon release from forests, as higher temperatures inhibit the forests' ability to store carbon and increased lightning strikes and pest invasions lead to higher rates of forest fires.
Last on the panel was Jozsef Feller, a senior environmental official from Hungary. He argued that the scope of the challenge of combating deforestation, as well as the miniscule window of opportunity we have, means that public money will simply not be enough to get the job done. He said that public money had a supplementary/facilitating role to provide for oversight, technical assistance, and other governance and enforcment issues.
However, he also cautioned about being completely gung-ho about REDD credits. He advocated for phasing REDD credits into the carbon markets so as to not shock the system. And, perhaps most significantly, he quoted the classic Qui custodiet ipsos custodes? (he didn't quote it precisely, but close enough). This was lead-in to expressing the belief that international oversight, as well as sanctions and enforcement, would be necessary for REDD to operate properly. This would require, to some extent, a relinquishing of national sovereignty in a way that certain developing countries (though none were specifically mentioned, China leaps instantly to mind) have been thus far reluctant to agree to.
The second panel I attended was hosted by the Carbon Market Investors Association. The interesting discussiont that took place revolved around the possibility of a U.S. cap-&-trade market (if the main climate legislation proposals actually pass next year) being linked with the EU's ETS. The panelists noted some obstacles, including the fact that the differences in market regulations would have to be resolved. For example, the ETS currently has no price caps or floors for carbon credits, whereas the Senate bill could potentially include both.
Another problem noted was the disparity between the prices in the markets. The EU ETS price on carbon credits currently hovers around 40 euro/ton, whereas U.S. interests have gotten skittish when any price above $20 U.S. dollars (roughly 13 euros at current exchange rates) is mentioned. Thus, for political as well as economic reasons (any linkage would inevitably result in huge transfer of wealth from the E.U. companies to the U.S.), any linkage could be very difficult. Thus, the panelists were skeptical that it could happen any time soon, and most of their projections estimated at least 2020 or later.
Live from the Plenary Session! and Breaking News!
Blogging live from the Plenary Session today:
3rd meeting of the COP, Report of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term Cooperative Action under the Convention.
This session was extremely crowded, as it was the last working session that observer parties could sit in on during the conference. After this, the heads of state will be present and only delegates and party members will be allowed in the working group negotiations.
The president of the COP, Connie Hedegaard, opened the floor to several countries to report on their progress in negotiating the future of the Kyoto protocol. A summary of their comments:
-Brazil delegate seemed to be stuck outside of security and the delegation was extremely upset by this issue.
-India also had trouble with security.
-Australia, South Africa, India, and several other countries felt that another meeting was necessary to work out the technical details of moving forward with the two track process
-the president of the COP will convene a working group to decide how to move forward with the negotiations of the future of the Kyoto Protocol
Breaking news: At the end of the meeting, it was announced that Connie Hedegaard has resigned from her post as president of the COP. She will be replaced by the Prime Minister of Denmark, who may be better able to preside over the remaining negotiations since many heads of state will be present. More details as we receive them....
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